Key Moments:
- The NFL and college football seasons have started, setting the stage to gauge the effect of prediction markets on traditional sportsbooks.
- New York, the top sports betting market, reported a 15.3% year-over-year decline in August handle, with only one prior instance of such a decrease.
- Prediction markets recorded over $5 billion in contracts traded during the NFL’s season-opening weekend, marking their two busiest days ever.
Prediction Markets Face Scrutiny Amid Football Kickoff
The launch of the NFL and college football seasons is expected to offer fresh insight into how prediction markets are affecting U.S. sportsbooks. Since these markets began allowing trading on sports outcomes in 2025, industry leaders have voiced concerns about losing customers to these alternative platforms.
Prediction markets enable users to buy and sell shares tied to sports outcomes, such as betting on whether the Kansas City Chiefs will secure a win on “Monday Night Football.” The American Gaming Association (AGA) contends that these platforms negatively impact the regulated sports betting sector, recently noting that legal NFL betting growth could experience its first slowdown since 2018.
AGA President and CEO Bill Miller described sports prediction markets as “backdoor sports betting,” stating that platforms overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission are “dangerously misleading … by marketing sports wagers as an investment.”
With the NFL season underway since last week and the college football schedule underway for two weeks, industry observers await September’s numbers to better understand the ongoing dynamic.
New York’s Sports Betting Numbers Shift
As the largest state market, New York reported $26.3 billion wagered in 2025, with sportsbooks retaining $2.55 billion. The state collected $1.32 billion in tax revenue from sports gambling that year. However, with prediction markets not subjected to state gaming taxes or fees, there is concern over potential revenue risk if these markets continue to grow.
Through July, New York saw sustained growth, with several months handling over $2 billion in bets. The World Cup earlier this year contributed to this surge as new customers entered legal sportsbooks. In August, though, the betting handle fell by 15.3%, marking only the second time the monthly figure was lower year-over-year since the market began. Mobile platforms accepted $1.73 billion in wagers, a decrease of $313 million compared to August 2025.
While part of the drop may relate to a post-World Cup lull as players anticipate the start of football seasons, the coming months will test the AGA’s prediction of a plateau in sports betting growth. Meanwhile, New Jersey—another leading market—reported a nearly 4% drop in handle through July.
| State | 2025 Handle | 2025 Tax Revenue | August 2025 Handle | August 2026 Handle | Year-over-Year Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York | $26.3 billion | $1.32 billion | $2.043 billion | $1.73 billion | -15.3% |
| New Jersey | – | – | – | – | -4% (through July) |
Record-Setting Activity in Prediction Markets
Prediction markets posted record-breaking volume during the NFL’s opening weekend. According to publicly available figures compiled by TicketTracker, over $5 billion in contracts changed hands on Saturday (Sept. 12) and Sunday (Sept. 13) alone. These two dates represented the busiest trading period on record for the sector.
- Author
Daniel Williams
